2023 predictions
i’ve slacked on evaluating my performance for my previous two years of predictions (which undermines the goal of improovement, i suppose). but i’m just going to plough ahead with 100 more for 2023. i can’t say i’m trying incredibly hard to be accurate; most of the fun here comes from thinking about interesting items to list.
2021 predictions
2022 predictions
politics (30)
Biden is president of US on Dec 31 - 90%
Xi is president of China on Dec 31 - 85%
a relatively discrete cyberattack aimed at a single infrastructure cluster results in severe disruption lasting more than three days (e.g airport, electrical grid operator, gas pipeline hub) - 85%
Biden officially announces re-election bid - 85%
Putin is president of Russia on Dec 31 - 80%
Ron DeSantis officially announces Republican presidential primary bid - 80%
Dianne Feinstein dies, resigns or announces intention not to run for 2024 reelection - 75%
Sanna Marin is prime minister of Finland on Dec 31 - 65%
Erdogan remains in power in Turkey on Dec 31st (via a high-quality reelection or otherwise) - 55%
a G20 politician is killed by a non-state drone attack - 50%
a nuclear weapon is detonated - 50%
China formally announces a new overseas military base - 45%
Sean McElwee is charged with a crime - 40%
Marshall Islands Compact of Free Association is renegotiated with a permanent right of residence in US - 30%
a bombing or other attack in Moscow kills more than 15 people - 25%
Canada clearly passes major legislative reforms to its assisted-suicide regime - 25%
Biden announces solar panels will be installed on white house grounds - 20%
Jimmy Carter is alive on Dec 31 - 20%
Zelensky is killed - 20%
US does military ops in country not previously engaged in past 20 yrs - 20%
China & Taiwan have a military incident resulting in at least one death - 20%
a formal ceasefire or end to the war in Ukraine is generally acknowledged - 20%
Saudi Arabia is clearly acknowledged to have joined or announced the intention to join the Abraham Accords, establishing formal diplomatic & economic links with Israel - 15%
US Supreme Court seat opens and is filled - 15%
sex scandal causes a US federal lawmaker to resign - 15%
a sitting governor, US senator or house member publicly endorses the Greater Idaho concept - 15%
sex scandal causes a US governor to resign - 10%
Kiev is generally understood to be held militarily by Russia on Dec 31 - 10%
a nuclear weapon is detonated, excluding North Korea - 5%
Colorado delays the physical reintroduction of gray wolves - 5%
econ/business (30)
US full-year crude oil production hits an all-time high, according to EIA - 90%
solar pv accounts for a plurality of new US electricity capacity - 80%
Facebook remains world's biggest social media firm by monthly active users - 80%
Bob Jordan is CEO of Southwest Airlines on Dec 31 - 75%
US economy has a recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth according to standard data sources - 75%
large (10+) passenger aircraft crashes - 70%
over one third of new cars sold in China's are pure battery electric, according to reliable data sources - 70%
coal generates at least 20% of USA's electricity - 65%
US federal funds rate upper bound exceeds 5% on Dec 31 - 65%
Texas adds the most solar pv capacity of any US state - 60%
proposed merger between Kroger and Albertsons is not officially cancelled - 60%
NuScale does not clearly push back its [semi-official/media consensus] 2029 target online date for first reactor - 55%
solar sees its biggest single year of total US capacity additions ever - 55%
NET Power clearly pushes back its [semi-official/media consensus] Q3 2023 target start date for construction of first commercial plant - 45%
Substack introduces a discounted bundle product - 45%
Amartya Sen is alive on Dec 31 - 40%
top five US airlines all generate a FY pre-tax GAAP profit (United, American, Delta, Southwest, Alaska) - 40%
Apple publicly announces car hardware project - 35%
IRS again delays, or significantly modifies, implementation of $600 digital wallet income threshold reporting requirement - 30%
GPT-4 is publicly released and results in a US congressional committee hearing involving an OpenAI employee - 30%
US unemployment rate falls below 3.5% - 30%
bitcoin above $30k on Dec 31 - 25%
YouTube becomes unavailable through normal web browsing in Russia - 20%
Tesla delivers more than two million vehicles for the year - 20%
US movie theater ticket sales exceed 2019 level, according to Box Office Mojo domestic yearly box office - 20%
Beyond Meat is acquired or otherwise ceases to be an independent going concern - 15%
over 400 GW of solar capacity is added globally, according to BNEF - 10%
a US News & World Report-ranked National Liberal Arts College announces it is closing - 5%
TikTok is generally banned for mainstream usage by the US govt - 5%
more CRISPR babies are publicly revealed - 5%
science/technology (20)
no US astronauts die on a mission - 90%
NASA’s OSIRIS-REx successfully returns to Earth pieces of asteroid Bennu - 90%
Hakuto-R successfully deploys rovers on moon without serious problems - 85%
global deaths from malaria decrease vs 2022, according to world malaria report 2024 point estimate - 80%
OpenAI publicly releases GPT-4 - 80%
global orbital launch attempts increase vs 2022, according to reliable data sources - 75%
under 600,000 people died from AIDS globally, according to UNAIDS summary point estimate - 60%
SpaceX Starship reaches orbit - 35%
US obesity rate declines vs 2022, according to generally accepted data sources - 30%
SpaceX non-destructively lands all of its returning rockets - 25%
mirror-image synthetic biology receives a feature article in a major journalism outlet - 20%
libgen becomes unavailable via normal web browsing in US - 15%
a paralyzed or elderly elected US politician does a photo op wearing a robotic exoskeleton - 10%
drug-resistant fungal infection kills a public figure & clearly generates a news cycle about fungus - 10%
lab-grown meat is legally available for general purchase in the US - 10%
oil spill >=1M barrels occurs - 5%
earthquake or tsunami kills over 100,000 ppl - 2%
volcano erupts in US & kills over 10 ppl - 2%
a nuclear reactor has a meltdown - 2%
solar flare causes widespread power outage - 1%
culture (20)
Tyler Cowen posts on MR every day - 95%
US immigrants born in India receive a majority of H-1B visas - 95%
China's population shrinks in absolute terms, according to reliable data sources - 90%
Pope Francis is Pope on Dec 31 - 85%
devarbol gets a gf - 85%
avg US life expectancy at birth falls vs 2022 according to CDC - 70%
Everything Everywhere All at Once wins fewer than two Academy Awards - 70%
Texas is the fastest growing US state by numerical change - 70%
US total fertility rate decreases vs 2020 - 65%
US drug overdose deaths increase vs 2022, according to standard CDC reporting - 65%
South Korea total fertility rate decreases vs 2022 - 60%
US “casual sex” among “unpartnered” “adolescents” is generally acknowledged to have declined vs 2022 according to standard survey data sources - 55%
Florida is the fastest-growing US state by percent change - 50%
traffic fatalities decrease in NYC vs 2022 - 50%
US population growth rate declines vs 2022, according to standard data sources - 45%
"alpha" becomes the clearly dominant moniker for the post-zoomer generation - 40%
US mass shooting kills over 15 ppl - 35%
US homicide rate increases vs 2022, according to standard data sources - 25%
an artist, museum or arts organization sues an “AI art” producer - 25%
US mass shooting kills over 50 ppl - 5%